การคาดประมาณการเปลี่ยนแปลงปริมาณคาร์บอนไดออกไซด์ของประเทศไทยระยะ 10 ปี จากปัจจัยการเติบโตทางเศรษฐกิจ PROJECTION OF CHANGE IN THE QUANTITY OF CARBON DIOXIDES OF THAILAND FOLLOWING ECONOMIC CHANGES OVER 10 YEARS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14456/jem.2020.6Keywords:
Thailand’s GDP projections, Thailand’s economic structural change, CO2 projection, CO2 structural changeAbstract
The aim of this study was to project the volume of Thailand’s economy to be used for the projection of the quantity of CO2 for years 2015 - 2025, used trend equations including linear, quadratic, and cubic forms from time series database released by the Office of National Economic and Social Development Board, and the World Bank. The projection of chain volume measures gross domestic products (CVMGDP) from the ratio of capital stock and labor force consisted of 2 paths: linear and exponential growth paths. The projection of value added from CVMGDP gave a declining path for manufacturing, and increasing for electricity generation, and transport for the 2 paths. The CO2 quantity was projected in case 1 to increase in near term and decline in the long term for the manufacturing and electricity generation, as the trend for the two sectors were in quadratic declining form, and to increase in both near and long terms for the transport, as the trend is linear increasing. The CO2 quantity was projected in case 2 to increase in near term and decline in the long term for the manufacturing and to increase in both near and long terms for the electricity generation and transport. The CO2 quantity from other sources was projected to increase in near term and decline in the long term. Measures to curb the growth of CO2 can originate from policies that promote users’ own generation of electricity from clean energy and promote transportation powered by electricity
References
Artur, A. (2019). These-are-the-5-key-logistics-trends-in-2019. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.mixmove.io/blog/these-are-the-5-key-logistics-trends-in-2019
Pattanapongchai, A., & Limmeechokchai, B. (2011). Least cost energy planning in Thailand: A case of biogas upgrading in palm oil industry. Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology, 33(6), 705-715.
Bangkok Post Learning. (2019). Solar power: Thailand needs a strategy. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.bangkokpost.com/learning/advanced/1260407/solar-power-thailand-needs-a-strategy
Bendix, A. (2018). Bill Gates says there are 5 'grand challenges' to stopping an apocalyptic future of floods, hurricanes, and drought. https://amp.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-challenges-to-stopping-climate-change-2018-10
Bradford, A., & Pappas, S. (2017). Effects of Global Warming. Retrieved April 23, 2019, from https://www.livescience.com/37057-global-warming-effects.html
Boonpa, S., & Sharp, A. (2015). Conversion of Solid Waste-to-Energy (WtE) in Thailand. International Conference on Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering (SEEE 2015). (pp 42-45). Atlantis Press.
Carsalesbase. (2019). Tesla. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/
Chaiprasert, P. (2011). Biogas Production from Agricultural Wastes in Thailand. Journal of Sustainable Energy & Environment Special Issue (2011) 63-65
Davis, S., Caldeira, K., & Matthews, H. D. (2010). Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure. Science (New York, N.Y.), 329, 1330-1333. doi:10.1126/science.1188566
Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency. (2019). Biomass Database Potential in Thailand. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://weben.dede.go.th/webmax/content/biomass-database-potential-thailand
Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency. (2019). Thailand needs to promote Energy-from-Waste. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://weben.dede.go.th/webmax/content/thailand-needs-promote-energy-waste
Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency. (2019). Wind power and its potential in Thailand. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://weben.dede.go.th/webmax/content/wind-power-and-its-potential-thailand
Exell, R.H.B. (1985). The wind energy potential of Thailand. Solar Energy. 35(1), 3-13.
Gordon, A. (2018). Can AI Really Improve Industrial Production Efficiency? Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2018/07/02/can-ai-really-improve-industrial-production-efficiency/#2f39a697145f
Guan, D., Hubacek, K., Weber, C. L., Peters, G. P., & Reiner, D. M. (2008). The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030. Global Environmental Change, 18(4), 626-634.
Heil, M.T. & Wodon, Q.T. (2000). Future Inequality in CO2 Emissions and the Impact of Abatement Proposals. Environmental and Resource Economics, 17(2), 163-181.
IRENA. (2017). Renewable Energy Outlook: Thailand, International Renewable Energy Agency Abu Dhabi. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2017/Nov/IRENA_Outlook_Thailand_2017.pdf
Jungea, F., Helferta, M., Abelea, E., & Vogel, F. (2017). Increase in energy efficiency of industrial production processes through thermal crosslinking of cutting-machine tools and cleaning machines by heat-pump technology. Proceedings of 12th IEA Heat Pump Conference. (pp. 1-10). n.p.
Aroonrat, K., & Wongwises, S. (2015). Current status and potential of hydro energy in Thailand: a review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 46, 70-78.
Kasikorn Bank. (2019). Thailand's Automotive Industry Outlook 2019. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.kasikornbank.com/international-business/en/Thailand/IndustryBusiness/Pages/201901_Thailand_AutoOutlook19.aspx
Köne, A. Ç., & Büke, T. (2010). Forecasting of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(9), 2906-2915.
Lotfalipour, M. R., Falahi, M. A., & Bastam, M. (2013). Prediction of CO2 Emissions in Iran using Grey and ARIMA Models. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3(3), 229-237.
McGrath, M. (2019). Big rise in atmospheric CO2 expected in 2019. Retrieved April 23, 2019, from https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46989789
Mujaddad, H. G., & Ahmed, H. K. (2016). Measuring Efficiency of Manufacturing Industries: An Application of DEA Double Bootstrap Technique. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 54(2), 363-384.
Myers, A. (2019). 4 U.S. Electric Vehicle Trends To Watch In 2019. Forbes. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2019/01/02/4-u-s-electric-vehicle-trends-to-watch-in-2019/#76449fa65a3c
Page, S. (2019). Ocean temperatures hit unwanted record. Retrieved January 10, 2019, from https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/ocean-temperatures-hit-unwanted-record
Pornputapong, T. (2013). The relationship between economic growth and global warming in Thailand based on the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis [In Thai]. Romphruek Journal Kirk University, 2(31), 100-116.
Pugnatorius Ltd. (2019). Biomass facilities in Thailand. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://pugnatorius.com/biomass/
Pugnatorius Ltd. (2019). Seven opportunities in Thailand’s Solar Energy 2019. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://pugnatorius.com/solar-energy-update-2019/
Pugnatorius Ltd. (2019). Seven opportunities in Thailand’s waste industries. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://pugnatorius.com/waste/
Pugnatorius Ltd. (2019). Wind energy in Thailand. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://pugnatorius.com/wind/
PwC CEE Transport & Logistics Trend Book. (2019). Five Forces Transforming Transport & Logistics. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.pwc.pl/pl/pdf/publikacje/2018/transport-logistics-trendbook-2019-en.pdf
Robinson, A. (2018). 6 Future Transportation Technologies That Will Change Transportation (and the Trucking Industry) Forever. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://cerasis.com/transportation-technologies/
Ruengphol, S. (2016). Greenhouse gas emission from the road transportation sector in Andaman provinces, Thailand [In Thai]. Published Master’s thesis, Prince of Songkla University.
Laoharatchapruek, S. (2018). Performance of Wind Farms in Thailand: Based on Mott MacDonald’s in country experience. Renewable Energy Asia Conference. Bangkok, 06 June 2018. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://www.asew-expo.com/portals/0/2018/1.%20Ms.%20Sasaraj_Performance%20of%20Wind%20Farms%20in%20Thailand%20-%20Mott%20MacDonald_Final.pdf
Say, N. P., & Yücel, M. (2006). Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Turkey: Empirical analysis and future projection based on an economic growth. Energy Policy, 34(18), 3870-3876.
The Conversation. (2019). The electric vehicle revolution will come from China, not the US. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://theconversation.com/the-electric-vehicle-revolution-will-come-from-china-not-the-us-116102
The Week. (2019). Hydrogen fuel cell vs. battery electric cars: which are better? The Week Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.theweek.co.uk/electric-cars/101196/hydrogen-fuel-cell-vs-battery-electric-cars-which-are-better
The World Bank. (2014a). CO2 emissions from transport (% of total fuel combustion). Retrieved September 20, 2018, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.CO2.TRAN.ZS?locations=TH
The World Bank. (2014b). CO2 emissions from manufacturing industries and construction (% of total fuel combustion). Retrieved September 20, 2018, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.CO2.MANF.ZS?locations=TH
The World Bank. (2014c). CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production, total (% of total fuel combustion). Retrieved September 20, 2018, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.CO2.ETOT.ZS?locations=TH
UNCTAD. (2018). Efficiency in industry. Report of Regional technical expert meeting. 13 April 2018, Nairobi, Kenya. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Regional%20TEM%20Nairobi_%20Report_Final_0.pdf
Varinsky, D. (2018). We’re altering the climate so severely that we’ll soon face apocalyptic repercussions. Sucking carbon dioxide out of the air could save us. https://amp.businessinsider.com/how-to-stop-gobal-warming-plan-carbon-capture-2018-10
Wang, Z.-X., & Ye, D.-J. (2017). Forecasting Chinese carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption using non-linear grey multivariable models. Journal of Cleaner Production, 142, 600-612.
Wigley, T. M. L. (1998). The Kyoto Protocol: CO2, CH4 and climate implications. Geophysical Research Letters, 25(13), 2285-2288.
Yokoyama, S-Y., Ogi, T., & Nalampoon, A. (2000). Biomass energy potential in Thailand. Biomass and Bioenergy, 18(5) 405-410.
Pattanapongchai, A., & Limmeechokchai, B. (2011). Least cost energy planning in Thailand: A case of biogas upgrading in palm oil industry. Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology, 33(6), 705-715.
Bangkok Post Learning. (2019). Solar power: Thailand needs a strategy. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.bangkokpost.com/learning/advanced/1260407/solar-power-thailand-needs-a-strategy
Bendix, A. (2018). Bill Gates says there are 5 'grand challenges' to stopping an apocalyptic future of floods, hurricanes, and drought. https://amp.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-challenges-to-stopping-climate-change-2018-10
Bradford, A., & Pappas, S. (2017). Effects of Global Warming. Retrieved April 23, 2019, from https://www.livescience.com/37057-global-warming-effects.html
Boonpa, S., & Sharp, A. (2015). Conversion of Solid Waste-to-Energy (WtE) in Thailand. International Conference on Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering (SEEE 2015). (pp 42-45). Atlantis Press.
Carsalesbase. (2019). Tesla. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/
Chaiprasert, P. (2011). Biogas Production from Agricultural Wastes in Thailand. Journal of Sustainable Energy & Environment Special Issue (2011) 63-65
Davis, S., Caldeira, K., & Matthews, H. D. (2010). Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure. Science (New York, N.Y.), 329, 1330-1333. doi:10.1126/science.1188566
Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency. (2019). Biomass Database Potential in Thailand. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://weben.dede.go.th/webmax/content/biomass-database-potential-thailand
Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency. (2019). Thailand needs to promote Energy-from-Waste. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://weben.dede.go.th/webmax/content/thailand-needs-promote-energy-waste
Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency. (2019). Wind power and its potential in Thailand. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://weben.dede.go.th/webmax/content/wind-power-and-its-potential-thailand
Exell, R.H.B. (1985). The wind energy potential of Thailand. Solar Energy. 35(1), 3-13.
Gordon, A. (2018). Can AI Really Improve Industrial Production Efficiency? Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2018/07/02/can-ai-really-improve-industrial-production-efficiency/#2f39a697145f
Guan, D., Hubacek, K., Weber, C. L., Peters, G. P., & Reiner, D. M. (2008). The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030. Global Environmental Change, 18(4), 626-634.
Heil, M.T. & Wodon, Q.T. (2000). Future Inequality in CO2 Emissions and the Impact of Abatement Proposals. Environmental and Resource Economics, 17(2), 163-181.
IRENA. (2017). Renewable Energy Outlook: Thailand, International Renewable Energy Agency Abu Dhabi. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2017/Nov/IRENA_Outlook_Thailand_2017.pdf
Jungea, F., Helferta, M., Abelea, E., & Vogel, F. (2017). Increase in energy efficiency of industrial production processes through thermal crosslinking of cutting-machine tools and cleaning machines by heat-pump technology. Proceedings of 12th IEA Heat Pump Conference. (pp. 1-10). n.p.
Aroonrat, K., & Wongwises, S. (2015). Current status and potential of hydro energy in Thailand: a review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 46, 70-78.
Kasikorn Bank. (2019). Thailand's Automotive Industry Outlook 2019. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.kasikornbank.com/international-business/en/Thailand/IndustryBusiness/Pages/201901_Thailand_AutoOutlook19.aspx
Köne, A. Ç., & Büke, T. (2010). Forecasting of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(9), 2906-2915.
Lotfalipour, M. R., Falahi, M. A., & Bastam, M. (2013). Prediction of CO2 Emissions in Iran using Grey and ARIMA Models. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3(3), 229-237.
McGrath, M. (2019). Big rise in atmospheric CO2 expected in 2019. Retrieved April 23, 2019, from https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46989789
Mujaddad, H. G., & Ahmed, H. K. (2016). Measuring Efficiency of Manufacturing Industries: An Application of DEA Double Bootstrap Technique. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 54(2), 363-384.
Myers, A. (2019). 4 U.S. Electric Vehicle Trends To Watch In 2019. Forbes. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2019/01/02/4-u-s-electric-vehicle-trends-to-watch-in-2019/#76449fa65a3c
Page, S. (2019). Ocean temperatures hit unwanted record. Retrieved January 10, 2019, from https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/ocean-temperatures-hit-unwanted-record
Pornputapong, T. (2013). The relationship between economic growth and global warming in Thailand based on the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis [In Thai]. Romphruek Journal Kirk University, 2(31), 100-116.
Pugnatorius Ltd. (2019). Biomass facilities in Thailand. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://pugnatorius.com/biomass/
Pugnatorius Ltd. (2019). Seven opportunities in Thailand’s Solar Energy 2019. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://pugnatorius.com/solar-energy-update-2019/
Pugnatorius Ltd. (2019). Seven opportunities in Thailand’s waste industries. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://pugnatorius.com/waste/
Pugnatorius Ltd. (2019). Wind energy in Thailand. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://pugnatorius.com/wind/
PwC CEE Transport & Logistics Trend Book. (2019). Five Forces Transforming Transport & Logistics. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.pwc.pl/pl/pdf/publikacje/2018/transport-logistics-trendbook-2019-en.pdf
Robinson, A. (2018). 6 Future Transportation Technologies That Will Change Transportation (and the Trucking Industry) Forever. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://cerasis.com/transportation-technologies/
Ruengphol, S. (2016). Greenhouse gas emission from the road transportation sector in Andaman provinces, Thailand [In Thai]. Published Master’s thesis, Prince of Songkla University.
Laoharatchapruek, S. (2018). Performance of Wind Farms in Thailand: Based on Mott MacDonald’s in country experience. Renewable Energy Asia Conference. Bangkok, 06 June 2018. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://www.asew-expo.com/portals/0/2018/1.%20Ms.%20Sasaraj_Performance%20of%20Wind%20Farms%20in%20Thailand%20-%20Mott%20MacDonald_Final.pdf
Say, N. P., & Yücel, M. (2006). Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Turkey: Empirical analysis and future projection based on an economic growth. Energy Policy, 34(18), 3870-3876.
The Conversation. (2019). The electric vehicle revolution will come from China, not the US. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://theconversation.com/the-electric-vehicle-revolution-will-come-from-china-not-the-us-116102
The Week. (2019). Hydrogen fuel cell vs. battery electric cars: which are better? The Week Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.theweek.co.uk/electric-cars/101196/hydrogen-fuel-cell-vs-battery-electric-cars-which-are-better
The World Bank. (2014a). CO2 emissions from transport (% of total fuel combustion). Retrieved September 20, 2018, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.CO2.TRAN.ZS?locations=TH
The World Bank. (2014b). CO2 emissions from manufacturing industries and construction (% of total fuel combustion). Retrieved September 20, 2018, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.CO2.MANF.ZS?locations=TH
The World Bank. (2014c). CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production, total (% of total fuel combustion). Retrieved September 20, 2018, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.CO2.ETOT.ZS?locations=TH
UNCTAD. (2018). Efficiency in industry. Report of Regional technical expert meeting. 13 April 2018, Nairobi, Kenya. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Regional%20TEM%20Nairobi_%20Report_Final_0.pdf
Varinsky, D. (2018). We’re altering the climate so severely that we’ll soon face apocalyptic repercussions. Sucking carbon dioxide out of the air could save us. https://amp.businessinsider.com/how-to-stop-gobal-warming-plan-carbon-capture-2018-10
Wang, Z.-X., & Ye, D.-J. (2017). Forecasting Chinese carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption using non-linear grey multivariable models. Journal of Cleaner Production, 142, 600-612.
Wigley, T. M. L. (1998). The Kyoto Protocol: CO2, CH4 and climate implications. Geophysical Research Letters, 25(13), 2285-2288.
Yokoyama, S-Y., Ogi, T., & Nalampoon, A. (2000). Biomass energy potential in Thailand. Biomass and Bioenergy, 18(5) 405-410.
Downloads
Published
2020-06-19
How to Cite
วราทิพย์ วัฒนวินิจฉัย W. W., & สมพจน์ กรรณนุช S. K. (2020). การคาดประมาณการเปลี่ยนแปลงปริมาณคาร์บอนไดออกไซด์ของประเทศไทยระยะ 10 ปี จากปัจจัยการเติบโตทางเศรษฐกิจ PROJECTION OF CHANGE IN THE QUANTITY OF CARBON DIOXIDES OF THAILAND FOLLOWING ECONOMIC CHANGES OVER 10 YEARS. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT, 16(1), 110–133. https://doi.org/10.14456/jem.2020.6
Issue
Section
บทความวิจัย Research
