The Export Potential of Thailand’s Frozen Shrimps

Abstract

The objective of this study was to measure the export potential for frozen shrimps from Thailand by analyzing changes in its export value. The analyses were conducted using the Constant Market Share Model. The data used were from the UN Comtrade Database in the following 5 study periods: 1989-1995, 1996-2003, 2004-2008, 2009-2014 and 2015. These periods correlate with events which could have affected shrimp exports from Thailand.

The results of the study in all factors that had an impact on the potential of exports revealed that, pure competition effect played the most significant role for frozen shrimps. The main reason was that it was a controllable factor and the export price factor was its major element. Apparently, the change in export price depended on the ability of resource management and the governments’ public policies. The average value of frozen shrimp exports decreased by US$ 28,011,523 when the periods of 1989-1995 and 1996-2003 were compared. This value also decreased by US$ 240,441,715 when the periods of 1996-2003 and 2004-2008 were compared. However, this value increased by US$ 296,861,625 when the periods of 2004-2008 and 2009-2014 were compared but decreased again by US$ 665,481,035 when the period of 2009-2014 was compared to 2015. A growth in world trade had a positive effect on the export values of frozen shrimps in every period studied. On the other hand, factors explaining an interaction effect had a negative effect on the export values of frozen shrimps in every period studied. Factors explaining effects from market distribution and pure competition had negative effects in the first two periods but had a positive effect in the third period studied.