ผลกระทบของความต้องการเอทานอลต่อมันสำปะหลัง อ้อย กากน้ำตาล และน้ำมันแก๊สโซฮอล์ [The Impact of Ethanol Demand on Cassava Sugarcane Molasses and Gasohol]
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เม.ย. 30, 2018
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บทคัดย่อ
การวิจัยครั้งนี้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อ 1) สร้างแบบจำลองเศรษฐมิติสำหรับเอทานอล 2) พยากรณ์แนวโน้มผลกระทบของมันสำปะหลัง อ้อย กากน้ำตาล และน้ำมันแก๊สโซฮอล์ จากความต้องการเอทานอลในช่วงปี พ.ศ. 2559 - 2563 อาศัยข้อมูลอนุกรมเวลารายปี ตั้งแต่ปี พ.ศ. 2547 - 2558 โดยใช้แบบจำลองระบบสมการเกี่ยวเนื่อง ประมาณค่าสัมประสิทธิ์ด้วยวิธีกำลังสองน้อยที่สุดสามขั้น แบบจำลองมีทั้งหมด 24 สมการ ได้แก่ สมการประพฤติกรรม 22 สมการและสมการเอกลักษณ์ 2 สมการ การทดสอบความเหมาะสมของตัวแปรภายในของแบบจำลองด้วยการเปรียบเทียบข้อมูลที่พยากรณ์เหตุการณ์ในอนาคตกับข้อมูลจริง ได้แก่ ค่า RMSE กับ ค่าสถิติ U การพยากรณ์แนวโน้มในอนาคตใน 5 ปีข้างหน้า กำหนดให้ความต้องการเอทานอลเพิ่มขึ้นตามแผนส่งเสริมการพัฒนาพลังงานทดแทนและพลังงานทางเลือก 25% ระยะ 10 ปี เพิ่มขึ้นร้อยละ 5, 10, 15, 20 และ 25 ในช่วงปี พ.ศ. 2559 - 2563 พบว่า ปริมาณความต้องการเอทานอลที่เพิ่มขึ้น จะส่งผลกระทบต่อปริมาณมันสำปะหลัง อ้อย กากน้ำตาล และน้ำมันแก๊สโซฮอล์ โดยเพิ่มสูงขึ้นอย่างต่อเนื่อง แสดงให้เห็นว่ารัฐบาลควรวางแผนการและกำหนดนโยบายให้เหมาะสมกับสถานการณ์การเปลี่ยนแปลงในอนาคตของเนื้อที่เก็บเกี่ยวมันสำปะหลัง เนื้อที่เก็บเกี่ยวอ้อย อุปสงค์กากน้ำตาล อุปสงค์น้ำมันแก๊สโซฮอล์ E10_95, E20_95 และ E 85_95 ซึ่งมีค่าเฉลี่ยเพิ่มขึ้นร้อยละ 2.40, 1.75, 4.82, 8.00, 22.24 และ 5.10 ตามลำดับ
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References
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2. Akinfenwa, S. O. and Qasmi, B. A. (2014). Ethanol, the agricultural economy, and rural incomes in the United States: A bivariate econometric approach. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 43(2), 1-15.
3. Akkarangkul, P. (2011). Prediction of external impacts on Thai economy and polic proposal on sufficiency economy. Pathum Thani: Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi.
4. Anderson, S. T. (2006). The demand for E85 ethanol. Michigan State: United State of American.
5. Anderson, S. T. (2012). The demand for ethanol as a gasoline substitute. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 63(2), 151-168.
6. Archasai, K. (2008). Renewable energy… alternative in the expensive oil era. Retrieved January 20, 2015, from http://www.bangkokbank.com/download/Energy_TH.pdf
7. Areepom, A. and Pattanarangsun, P. (2017). Modelling tourism demand for Koh Lan as early economic warning. Journal of Business, Economics and Communications, 12(1), 73-88.
8. Arndt, C., Pauw, K. and Thurlow, J. (2010). Biofuels and economic development in Tanzania. Tanzania: International Food Policy Research Institute.
9. Arshad, F. M., Shamsudin, M. N. and Hameed, A. A. (2011). An econometric analysis of the link between biodiesel demand and Malaysian palm oil market. International Journal of Business and Management, 6(2), 35-45.
10. Arshad, F. M., Shamsudin, M. N. and Yusop, Z. (2009). The impact of biodiesel demand on the Malaysian palm oil market. Proceeding Perkem IV, 1(2009), 566-576.
11. Barros, C. P., Gil-Alana, L. A. and Wanke, P. (2014). Ethanol consumption in Brazil: Empirical fact based on persistence, seasonality and breaks. Biomass and Bioenergy Journal, 63(April 2014), 313-320.
12. Bayramoglu, A. T., Cetin, M. and Karabulut, G. (2016). The impact of biofuels demand on agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from U.S. corn market. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 4(2), 189-206.
13. Bureau of Agricultural Economic Research. (2010). Demand and supply of pepper, before and after the opening of the market under the ASEAN (AFTA). Bangkok: Office of Agricultural Economics.
14. Cantos, J. A. and Dixon, R. K. (2014). ). Impacts of bioethanol on gasoline prices in the Philippines: An econometric analysis. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Journal, 19(1), 1-13.
15. Chaisinboon, O. and Chontanawat, J. (2011). Factors determining the competing use of Thailand’s cassava for food and fuel. Energy Procedia Journal, 9(2011), 216-229.
16. Chaithat, C., Chomchuen, T. and Manussanit, W. (2016). An analysis of the budget expenditures appropriation for education affecting the northern economic growth. Journal of Business, Economics and Communications, 11(2), 62-74.
17. Changsarn, P. (2015). The relationship of internal and external eactors affecting cassava’s Product Export to Pepple’s Republic of China (PRC). Master thesis M.B.A., Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani.
18. Chanthawong, A., Dhakal, S. and Jongwanich, J. (2016). Supply and demand of biofuels in the fuel market of Thailand: Two stage least square and three least square approaches. Energy, 114(1 November 2016), 431-443.
19. Charoenphonphanich, C. (2008). Study of using 20 percent ethanol blended gasohol in conventional cars and motorcycles. Bangkok: King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang.
20. Cheevapruk, S., Triwong, P., Tangsiriworakul, C., Poompipatpong, C. and Srimanecha, C. (2017). Evaluation of the aternative energy development plan. Journal of Industrial Technology, 13(1), 16-26.
21. Chindaruksa, S. (2008). New energy crop: Sweet sorghum for ethanol production in Thailand. Thaksin University Journal, 11(1), 84-93.
22. Demirbas, A. (2009). Political, economic and environmental impacts of biofuels: A review. Applied Energy, 86(1), 108-117.
23. Department of Energy Business. (2013). Gasohol. Retrieved May 20, 2015, from http://www.doeb.go.th/knowledge/data/E85.pdf
24. Dewi, S., Arshad, F. M., Shamsudin, M. N. and Yusop, Z. (Lecturer). (March 15-16, 2010). The impact of biodiesel demand on the Malaysian palm oil market: A combination of econometrics and system dynamics approach. in The International Conference on Business and Economic Research (ICBER) (pp. 1-16). Malaysia: Hilton Hotel, Kuching, Sarawak.
25. Du, X. and Hayes, J. D. (2009). Impact of ethanol production on US. and regional gasoline markets. Energy Policy, 37(8), 3227-3234.
26. Energy Policy and Planning Office. (2015). Oil and electric situation of Thailand 2015 Bangkok: Ministry of Energy.
27. Energy Policy and Planning Office. (2016). Energy statistics of Thailand 2016. Bangkok: Ministry of Energy.
28. Fongprapai, O. and Boonserm, P. (2013). Forecasting demand for crude palm oil in Thailand. Journal of Business and Administration, 2(1), 46-67.
29. Gawga, S. (2011). An econometric model for cassava demand and supply. Independent study M.Econ., Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics Kasetsart University, Bangkok.
30. Goldemberg, J., Coelho, S. T. and Guardabassi, P. (2008). The sustainability of ethanol production from sugarcane. Energy Policy, 36(6), 2086-2097.
31. Gorter, H., Drabik, D., Kliauga, E. M. and Timilsina, G. R. (2013). An economic model of Brazil’s ethanol-sugar markets and impacts of fuel plicies. Policy Research Working Paper, 6524(2013), 1-50.
32. Gositanon, A., Budsayaplakorn, S. and Thamma-Apiroam, R. (2010). Impacts of trade barriers Thailand’s hot-rolled steel market. Economics and Public Policy Journal, 1(2), 69-84.
33. Hahn-Hagerdal, B., Galbe, M., Gorwa-Grauslund, M. F., Liden, G. and Zacchi, G. (2007).
Bio-ethanol - The fuel of tomorrow from the residues of today. TRENDS in Biotechnology, 24(12), 546-556.
34. Jaisil, P. and Putto, C. (2010). Application of crop simulation model for makeup sweet sorghum production potential map and feedstock management for ethanol industry. Khon Kaen: Khon Kaen University.
35. Koizumi, T. and Ohga, K. (2006). Impacts of the Chinese fuel - ethanol program on the world corn market: An econometric simulation approach. The Japanese Journal Rural Economics, 8(2006), 26-40.
36. Kumse, K. (2015). Stop oil prices are expensive: The impacts of Thai ethanol industrial. Retrieved May 20, 2015, from https://www.scbeic.com/th/detail/file/product/1176/e1pr57p1np/Note_Ethanol_20150312.pdf
37. Leite, R. C. C., Leal, M. R. L. V., Cortez, L. A. B., Griffin, W. M. and Scandiffio, M. I. G. (2009). Can Brazil replace 5% of the 2025 gasoline world demand with ethanol?. Energy Journal, 34(5), 655-661.
38. Manachotphong, W. (2012). Econometric models: Demand for Thai export rubber products. Bangkok: Thammasat Printing House.
39. Miljkovic, D., Shaik, S. and Braun, D. (2012). Impact of biofuel policies on livestock production in the United States. Journal of Policy Modeling, 34(6), 817-831.
40. Mlambo, L. (2012). Adaptive and rational expectations hypothesis: Reviewing the critiques. Journal of Economic Behavior, 2(June 2012), 3-15.
41. Nandi, J. A., Gunn, P. and Yurkushi, E. N. (2011). Economic analysis of cassava production in obubra local government area of cross-river state, Nigeria. Asian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 3(3), 205-209.
42. Nguyen, T. L. T., Gheewala, S. H. and Garivait, S. (2007). Energy balance and GHG - abatement cost of cassava utilization for fuel ethanol in Thailand. Energy Policy, 35(9), 4585-4596.
43. Ninbai, T. (2012). Econometrics 2. Bangkok: Ramkhamhaeng University.
44. Norasethasopon, W. (2009). Effect of gasohol production on sugarcane planting in Thailand. NIDA Development Journal, 49(1), 1-26.
45. Norasethasopon, W. (2010). Effect of gasohol production on increasing of sugarcane and cassava planting area in dimension of economic management in Thailand. NIDA Business Journal, 2(7), 93-116.
46. Office of Industrial Economics Research. (2009). Study on the impact of Thai economy on tapioca use for alternative energy production. Bangkok: The Office of Industrial Economics Research.
47. Office of the Cane and Sugar Board. (2016). Report on sugarcane and sugar production year 2015/2016. Bangkok: Office of the Cane and Sugar Board.
48. Pao, H. T. and Fu, H. C. (2013). Renewable energy, non-renewable energy and economic growth in Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25(September 2013), 381–392.
49. Park, H. and Fortenbery, T. R. (April 16-17, 2007). The effect of ethanol production on the U.S. national corn price. in NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting and Market Risk Management. Chicago: Illinois.
50. Pock, M. (2010). Gasoline demand in Europe: New insights. Energy Economics, 32(1), 54-62.
51. Premashthira, A. (2014). Agricultural adjustment projection model for energy crops in Thailand: A case study of sugar cane and cassava. Bangkok: The Thailand Research Fund.
52. Puttakul, W. and Pensupar, K. (2008). An economics analysis of life cycle assessment of ethanol. Applied Economics Journal Kasetsart University, 15(1), 13-37.
53. Quintero, J. A., Montoya, M. I., Sanchez, O. J., Giraldo, O. H. and Cardona, C. A. (2008). Fuel ethanol production from sugarcane and corn: Comparative analysis for a Colombian case. Energy Journal, 33(3), 385-399.
54. Rasri, B. (2011). Thai rice econometrics model. Bangkok: Office of Agricultural Economics.
55. Siamphakdee, S. (2010). Ethanol production. Retrieved February 20, 2015, from https://royalbioprojects.wordpress.com/
56. Somsrivilairut, P. (2011). Econometrics model for Thailand’s cassava industry: Impacts of ethanol utilization. Master thesis M.Econ., Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok.
57. Sriyotha, S. and Sessomboon, W. (2012). Analysis on the sufficiency of molasses and tapioca for the production of ethanol and recommendations from the prediction of production, consumption and exporting of ethanol in Thailand. Khon Kaen Agriculture, 40(supplement 3), 194-200.
58. Suksai, K. and Premashthira, A. (2014). The impacts of plantation area control policy on food crop production. Kasetsart Journal (Social Science), 35(3), 419-431.
59. Taghinezhad, J., Alimardani, R. and Jafari, A. (2014). Energy consumption flow and econometric models of sugarcane production in Khouzestan province of Iran. Sugar Tech, 16(3), 277-285.
60. Tatum, S. W., Skinner, S. J. and Jackson, J. D. (2010). On the economic sustainability of ethanol E85. Energy Economics Journal, 32(6), 1263-1267.
61. Taylor, C. R and Taylor, M. M. (2009). A brief description of AGSIM: An econometric-simulation model of the agricultural economy used for biofuel evaluation. BioEnergy Policy Brief, (July 2009), 1-8.
62. Thai Ethanol Manufacturing Association. (2015). Production-process-ethanol. Retrieved February 20, 2015, from http://www.thai-ethanol.com/en/ethanol/production-process-ethanol.html
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