การคาดประมาณการเปลี่ยนแปลงปริมาณคาร์บอนไดออกไซด์ของประเทศไทยระยะ 10 ปี จากปัจจัยการเติบโตทางเศรษฐกิจ PROJECTION OF CHANGE IN THE QUANTITY OF CARBON DIOXIDES OF THAILAND FOLLOWING ECONOMIC CHANGES OVER 10 YEARS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14456/jem.2020.6คำสำคัญ:
การคาดประมาณ GDP ประเทศไทย, โครงสร้างเศรษฐกิจ, การคาดประมาณ CO2, โครงสร้าง CO2บทคัดย่อ
การศึกษานี้มีจุดมุ่งหมายเพื่อคาดประมาณการเติบโตทางเศรษฐกิจเพื่อคาดประมาณปริมาณ CO2 ของประเทศไทยระหว่างปี พ.ศ. 2558 - 2568 โดยวิธีสมการแนวโน้มแบบเชิงเส้น แบบกำลังสอง และแบบลูกบาศก์ การคาดประมาณผลผลิตมวลรวมภายในประเทศแบบปริมาณลูกโซ่จากอัตราส่วนของปัจจัยทุนกับปัจจัยแรงงานประกอบด้วย 2 ทิศทาง ได้แก่ การเติบโตอัตราต่ำแบบเชิงเส้น และการเติบโตอัตราสูงแบบเอกซ์โปเนนเชียล การคาดประมาณมูลค่าเพิ่มจากผลผลิตมวลรวมภายในประเทศแบบปริมาณลูกโซ่ พบว่ามีแนวโน้มต่ำลงสำหรับภาคอุตสาหกรรม สูงขึ้นสำหรับภาคการผลิตไฟฟ้า และภาคการขนส่งทั้ง 2 ทิศทาง เป็นผลให้ในกรณีที่ 1 ปริมาณ CO2 ภาคอุตสาหกรรม และภาคการผลิตไฟฟ้า ซึ่งมีแนวโน้มลดลงแบบกำลังสอง มีปริมาณเพิ่มขึ้นในระยะสั้นและลดลงในระยะยาว และภาคการขนส่ง ซึ่งมีแนวโน้มลดลงแบบเชิงเส้น มีปริมาณเพิ่มขึ้นในระยะสั้นและในระยะยาว และในกรณีที่ 2 ปริมาณ CO2 ภาคอุตสาหกรรม มีปริมาณเพิ่มขึ้นในระยะสั้นและลดลงในระยะยาว ภาคการผลิตไฟฟ้า และภาคการขนส่ง มีปริมาณเพิ่มขึ้นในระยะสั้นและในระยะยาว สำหรับปริมาณ CO2 จากแหล่งอื่น ๆ จะมีปริมาณเพิ่มขึ้นในระยะสั้นและลดลงในระยะยาว การชะลอการเติบโตของปริมาณ CO2 อาจจะประกอบด้วยนโยบายส่งเสริมการใช้พลังงานสะอาด และการส่งเสริมการใช้ยานพาหนะพลังงานไฟฟ้า
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Yokoyama, S-Y., Ogi, T., & Nalampoon, A. (2000). Biomass energy potential in Thailand. Biomass and Bioenergy, 18(5) 405-410.
Pattanapongchai, A., & Limmeechokchai, B. (2011). Least cost energy planning in Thailand: A case of biogas upgrading in palm oil industry. Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology, 33(6), 705-715.
Bangkok Post Learning. (2019). Solar power: Thailand needs a strategy. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.bangkokpost.com/learning/advanced/1260407/solar-power-thailand-needs-a-strategy
Bendix, A. (2018). Bill Gates says there are 5 'grand challenges' to stopping an apocalyptic future of floods, hurricanes, and drought. https://amp.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-challenges-to-stopping-climate-change-2018-10
Bradford, A., & Pappas, S. (2017). Effects of Global Warming. Retrieved April 23, 2019, from https://www.livescience.com/37057-global-warming-effects.html
Boonpa, S., & Sharp, A. (2015). Conversion of Solid Waste-to-Energy (WtE) in Thailand. International Conference on Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering (SEEE 2015). (pp 42-45). Atlantis Press.
Carsalesbase. (2019). Tesla. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/
Chaiprasert, P. (2011). Biogas Production from Agricultural Wastes in Thailand. Journal of Sustainable Energy & Environment Special Issue (2011) 63-65
Davis, S., Caldeira, K., & Matthews, H. D. (2010). Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure. Science (New York, N.Y.), 329, 1330-1333. doi:10.1126/science.1188566
Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency. (2019). Biomass Database Potential in Thailand. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://weben.dede.go.th/webmax/content/biomass-database-potential-thailand
Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency. (2019). Thailand needs to promote Energy-from-Waste. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://weben.dede.go.th/webmax/content/thailand-needs-promote-energy-waste
Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency. (2019). Wind power and its potential in Thailand. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://weben.dede.go.th/webmax/content/wind-power-and-its-potential-thailand
Exell, R.H.B. (1985). The wind energy potential of Thailand. Solar Energy. 35(1), 3-13.
Gordon, A. (2018). Can AI Really Improve Industrial Production Efficiency? Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2018/07/02/can-ai-really-improve-industrial-production-efficiency/#2f39a697145f
Guan, D., Hubacek, K., Weber, C. L., Peters, G. P., & Reiner, D. M. (2008). The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030. Global Environmental Change, 18(4), 626-634.
Heil, M.T. & Wodon, Q.T. (2000). Future Inequality in CO2 Emissions and the Impact of Abatement Proposals. Environmental and Resource Economics, 17(2), 163-181.
IRENA. (2017). Renewable Energy Outlook: Thailand, International Renewable Energy Agency Abu Dhabi. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2017/Nov/IRENA_Outlook_Thailand_2017.pdf
Jungea, F., Helferta, M., Abelea, E., & Vogel, F. (2017). Increase in energy efficiency of industrial production processes through thermal crosslinking of cutting-machine tools and cleaning machines by heat-pump technology. Proceedings of 12th IEA Heat Pump Conference. (pp. 1-10). n.p.
Aroonrat, K., & Wongwises, S. (2015). Current status and potential of hydro energy in Thailand: a review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 46, 70-78.
Kasikorn Bank. (2019). Thailand's Automotive Industry Outlook 2019. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.kasikornbank.com/international-business/en/Thailand/IndustryBusiness/Pages/201901_Thailand_AutoOutlook19.aspx
Köne, A. Ç., & Büke, T. (2010). Forecasting of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(9), 2906-2915.
Lotfalipour, M. R., Falahi, M. A., & Bastam, M. (2013). Prediction of CO2 Emissions in Iran using Grey and ARIMA Models. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3(3), 229-237.
McGrath, M. (2019). Big rise in atmospheric CO2 expected in 2019. Retrieved April 23, 2019, from https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46989789
Mujaddad, H. G., & Ahmed, H. K. (2016). Measuring Efficiency of Manufacturing Industries: An Application of DEA Double Bootstrap Technique. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 54(2), 363-384.
Myers, A. (2019). 4 U.S. Electric Vehicle Trends To Watch In 2019. Forbes. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2019/01/02/4-u-s-electric-vehicle-trends-to-watch-in-2019/#76449fa65a3c
Page, S. (2019). Ocean temperatures hit unwanted record. Retrieved January 10, 2019, from https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/ocean-temperatures-hit-unwanted-record
Pornputapong, T. (2013). The relationship between economic growth and global warming in Thailand based on the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis [In Thai]. Romphruek Journal Kirk University, 2(31), 100-116.
Pugnatorius Ltd. (2019). Biomass facilities in Thailand. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://pugnatorius.com/biomass/
Pugnatorius Ltd. (2019). Seven opportunities in Thailand’s Solar Energy 2019. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://pugnatorius.com/solar-energy-update-2019/
Pugnatorius Ltd. (2019). Seven opportunities in Thailand’s waste industries. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://pugnatorius.com/waste/
Pugnatorius Ltd. (2019). Wind energy in Thailand. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://pugnatorius.com/wind/
PwC CEE Transport & Logistics Trend Book. (2019). Five Forces Transforming Transport & Logistics. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.pwc.pl/pl/pdf/publikacje/2018/transport-logistics-trendbook-2019-en.pdf
Robinson, A. (2018). 6 Future Transportation Technologies That Will Change Transportation (and the Trucking Industry) Forever. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://cerasis.com/transportation-technologies/
Ruengphol, S. (2016). Greenhouse gas emission from the road transportation sector in Andaman provinces, Thailand [In Thai]. Published Master’s thesis, Prince of Songkla University.
Laoharatchapruek, S. (2018). Performance of Wind Farms in Thailand: Based on Mott MacDonald’s in country experience. Renewable Energy Asia Conference. Bangkok, 06 June 2018. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://www.asew-expo.com/portals/0/2018/1.%20Ms.%20Sasaraj_Performance%20of%20Wind%20Farms%20in%20Thailand%20-%20Mott%20MacDonald_Final.pdf
Say, N. P., & Yücel, M. (2006). Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Turkey: Empirical analysis and future projection based on an economic growth. Energy Policy, 34(18), 3870-3876.
The Conversation. (2019). The electric vehicle revolution will come from China, not the US. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from http://theconversation.com/the-electric-vehicle-revolution-will-come-from-china-not-the-us-116102
The Week. (2019). Hydrogen fuel cell vs. battery electric cars: which are better? The Week Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://www.theweek.co.uk/electric-cars/101196/hydrogen-fuel-cell-vs-battery-electric-cars-which-are-better
The World Bank. (2014a). CO2 emissions from transport (% of total fuel combustion). Retrieved September 20, 2018, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.CO2.TRAN.ZS?locations=TH
The World Bank. (2014b). CO2 emissions from manufacturing industries and construction (% of total fuel combustion). Retrieved September 20, 2018, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.CO2.MANF.ZS?locations=TH
The World Bank. (2014c). CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production, total (% of total fuel combustion). Retrieved September 20, 2018, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.CO2.ETOT.ZS?locations=TH
UNCTAD. (2018). Efficiency in industry. Report of Regional technical expert meeting. 13 April 2018, Nairobi, Kenya. Retrieved July 26, 2019, from https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Regional%20TEM%20Nairobi_%20Report_Final_0.pdf
Varinsky, D. (2018). We’re altering the climate so severely that we’ll soon face apocalyptic repercussions. Sucking carbon dioxide out of the air could save us. https://amp.businessinsider.com/how-to-stop-gobal-warming-plan-carbon-capture-2018-10
Wang, Z.-X., & Ye, D.-J. (2017). Forecasting Chinese carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption using non-linear grey multivariable models. Journal of Cleaner Production, 142, 600-612.
Wigley, T. M. L. (1998). The Kyoto Protocol: CO2, CH4 and climate implications. Geophysical Research Letters, 25(13), 2285-2288.
Yokoyama, S-Y., Ogi, T., & Nalampoon, A. (2000). Biomass energy potential in Thailand. Biomass and Bioenergy, 18(5) 405-410.
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2020-06-19
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วราทิพย์ วัฒนวินิจฉัย W. W., & สมพจน์ กรรณนุช S. K. (2020). การคาดประมาณการเปลี่ยนแปลงปริมาณคาร์บอนไดออกไซด์ของประเทศไทยระยะ 10 ปี จากปัจจัยการเติบโตทางเศรษฐกิจ PROJECTION OF CHANGE IN THE QUANTITY OF CARBON DIOXIDES OF THAILAND FOLLOWING ECONOMIC CHANGES OVER 10 YEARS. วารสารการจัดการสิ่งแวดล้อมและความยั่งยืน, 16(1), 110–133. https://doi.org/10.14456/jem.2020.6
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