Forecasting Export Value of Silk Ready-Made Thai Garments by Multiple Linear Regression Model

Abstract

          The objectives of this research were: 1) to study the relationship of the factors of export value of ready-made garments made from Thai silk to the United States, the world economic expansion rate, the exchange rate of the baht against the US dollar, the consumer price index (CPI), and the capacity utilization rate (textiles) that together predict or forecast the export value of ready-made garments made from silk in Thailand; and 2) to formulate an appropriate model for forecasting the export value of ready-made garments made from silk in Thailand. Data were collected from the database system, which was monthly data covering the period between January 2017 and November 2019, totaling 35 months. A multiple linear regression analysis was applied for data analysis.

            The study found that 1) there are 3 factors significantly related to the prediction or forecasting of the export value of silk ready-made garments in Thailand during the situation before the Coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak including the value of Thai exports to the United States, the world economic expansion rate, and the consumer price index (CPI) at the .01 significant level with correlation coefficients of 0.773, 0.761, and -0.049 respectively. And 2) according to the regression equation used for predicting or forecasting the export value of Silk Ready-Made Garments before the COVID-19 pandemic, it was discovered that the coefficient of determination    was 76.66%. The adjusted coefficient of determination  was 74.40%, while the standard error (S) was 1.053.