The Case study of Demand Forecasting For Purchase Planning Of Skincare Product

Abstract

          This research aims 1) To study product demand forecast, case study of skincare companies and 2) To present an appropriate forecasting method for the case study of demand forecasting for purchase planning of skincare products. Purposive Sampling method were used on this independent study. Using the sales data of various product items of the company, a case study of skin care products in the past 1 year since January 2021 to December 2021 are used. The researchers selected only the top five best-selling skincare products of the company and accounted for more than 80% of the company's total sales. To apply the data by obtained to the analytical process in the forecasting model using 4 methods as follows; 1) Moving average method 2) Weighted Average Method 3) Exponential smoothing method and 4) Trend forecasting method. Then, the forecast results were compared to find the least error by MAD, MSE and MAPE methods to find the least forecast error to find the most suitable forecasting method for purchasing planning. The research results of the analysis revealed that each method produces different high effective results. Therefore, each product type has a specific forecasting model that is suitable for different skincare products as follows; 1) SOQU Aloe Vera gel, a jar of 100 milligrams is suitable for the moving average method. 2) The Aloe Vera sheet mask is suitable for the weighted average method. 3) The tomatoes sheet mask is suitable for the Exponential smoothing method. 4) BARONESS Aloe Vera soothing gel Sachet size 100 milligrams is suitable for the trend forecasting method and 5) Aloe Vera gel, a jar of 300 milligrams is suitable for the weighted average method.