Economic Feasibility Analysis and Risk Analysis for Small scale hydro-power plant Project investment using the Reference Class Forecasting method and the Monte Carlo Simulation method

Abstract

The objectives of this study are to perform economic feasibility analysisand risk analysis
for small scale hydro-power plant project investment by applying the Reference Class Forecasting
and Monte Carlo Simulation methods in Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) using the key indicators which
are 1) Risk Acceptable Net Present Value (R-NPV), and 2) Degree of risk. The analysis shows that
the small scale hydro-powerplant project in case 3 has the highestNet Present Value and lowest
risk withRisk Acceptable Net Present Value (R-NPV) being 59.11 million baht (at 80% probability
level) and very low Degree of risk.
Economic feasibility analysisand Risk Analysis for Project Investment using the Reference
Class Forecasting and the Monte Carlo Simulation methods can be applied to investment risk
analysis for other types of projects, particularly inpublic infrastructure project investment that
often faces with inaccurate result problem, which is one of the causesleading to the inefficiency
in government administration.