The Evaluation of EV3.0 Policy and Factors Determining Demand for Electric Vehicles in Thailand
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
This study evaluates the impact of the EV3.0 policy and examines the macroeconomic determinants influencing the demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in Thailand. Utilizing monthly data from January 2017 to December 2024, the analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the ARDL-ECM with a structural break framework to investigate the relationship between variables in both short-run and long-run periods. The empirical findings reveal that EV demand increases with rising aggregate income and oil prices, while a decline in the minimum retail rate significantly stimulates demand. Additionally, the EV3.0 policy is found to have a statistically significant short-run effect on EV demand, albeit with a one-period lag. However, in the long run, aggregate income does not exert a statistically significant influence on EV demand, and the effectiveness of the EV3.0 policy diminishes considerably. These findings suggest that supplementary government policies offering continued incentives for households should be implemented to sustain long-term EV adoption.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Views and opinions appearing in articles in the Journal of Arts of Management It is the responsibility of the author of the article. and does not constitute the view and responsibility of the editorial team I agree that the article is copyright of the Arts and Management Journal.
References
Automotive Intelligence Unit. (2025, January 15). Statistics of newly registered car classified by fuel type. https://data.thaiauto.or.th/auto/auto-stat/auto-registration/stat-auto-registration-energy-menu.html.
Chen, C. F., de Rubens, G. Z., Noel, L., Kester, J., & Sovacool, B. K. (2020). Assessing the socio-demographic, technical, economic and behavioral factors of Nordic electric vehicle adoption and the influence of vehicle-to-grid preferences. Renewable and Sustainable
Energy Reviews, 121, 109692. DOI:10.1016/j.rser.2019.109692
Department of International Organizations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2016, November). Paris agreement: an important step for the operation against the climate change. https://thai-inter-org.mfa.go.th
Diamond, D. (2009). The impact of government incentives for hybrid-electric vehicles: evidence from US states. Energy Policy, 37(3), 972-983. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.094
Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy. (2021, October 22). Guidelines for promoting electric vehicles. https://www.eppo.go.th/index.php/en/component/k2/item/17415-ev-charging-221064-04.
Eppstein, M. J., Grover, D. K., Marshall, J. S., & Rizzo, D. M. (2011). An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Energy Policy, 39(6), 3789-3802. DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.04.007
Gong, S., Ardeshiri, A., & Rashidi, T. H. (2020). Impact of government incentives on the market penetration of electric vehicles in Australia. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 83, 102353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102353
Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(69)41685-7
Higueras-Castillo, E., Molinillo, S., Coca-Stefaniak, J. A., & Liebana-Cabanillas, F. (2020). Potential early adopters of hybrid and electric vehicles in Spain—Towards a customer profile. Sustainability, 12(11), 4345. DOI:10.3390/su12114345
Hu, Y., Wang, Z., & Li, X. (2020). Impact of policies on electric vehicle diffusion: an evolutionary game of small world network analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 265, 121703. DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121703
Huang, X., & Ge, J. (2019). Electric vehicle development in Beijing: an analysis of consumer purchase intention. Journal of Cleaner Production, 216, 361-372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.01.231
Klee, E., Morse, A., & Shin, C. (2024). Auto finance in the electric vehicle transition (Working Paper No. 2024-65). The finance and economics discussion series. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4940148.
Kong, N., & Hardman, S. (2019). Electric vehicle incentives in 13 leading electric vehicle markets. UC Davis Research Report. https://escholarship.org/content/qt0fm3x5bh/qt0fm3x5bh.pdf
Liao, F., Molin, E., & van Wee, B. (2017). Consumer preferences for electric vehicles: a literature review. Transport Reviews, 37(3), 252-275. https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2016.1230794
Mukherjee, S. C., & Ryan, L. (2020). Factors influencing early battery electric vehicle adoption in Ireland. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 118, 109504. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2019.109504
Nayum, A., Klöckner, C. A., & Mehmetoglu, M. (2016). Comparison of socio-psychological characteristics of conventional and battery electric car buyers. Travel Behaviour and Society, 3, 8-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tbs.2015.03.005
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2678547
Rahman, M. M., & Thill, J. C. (2024). A comprehensive survey of the key determinants of electric vehicle adoption: challenges and opportunities in the smart city context. World Electric Vehicle Journal, 15(12), 588. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj15120588
Shakeel, U. (2022). Electric vehicle development in Pakistan: predicting consumer purchase intention. Cleaner and Responsible Consumption, 5, 100065. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clrc.2022.100065
Sierzchula, W., Bakker, S., Maat, K., & Van Wee, B. (2014). The influence of financial incentives and other socio-economic factors on electric vehicle adoption. Energy Policy, 68, 183-194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.01.043
The Excise Department, Ministry of Finance. (2022, March 21). Criteria, methods and conditions under the subsidy of electric vehicles for cars and motorcycles. https://webdev.excise.go.th/act2560/files/legal/Scan2565-03-21-16077788.pdf
Yang, A., Liu, C., Yang, D., & Lu, C. (2023). Electric vehicle adoption in a mature market: a case study of Norway. Journal of Transport Geography, 106, 103489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2022.103489
