The Factor Affected the Price Change of Crude Palm Oil in Thailand

Abstract

          This research aims to investigate factors influencing crude palm oil (CPO) prices in Thailand and develop a predictive model for understanding price changes. The study utilizes monthly secondary data spanning from January 2018 to December 2022, totaling 60 months. The analysis employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression to estimate coefficients of independent variables against CPO prices. Seven factors are examined: 1) global crude oil prices (OP), 2) Thai Baht to US Dollar exchange rate (EX), 3) Thai CPO export quantity (EXQ), 4) value of Thai CPO exports (EXV), 5) CPO prices in Bangkok futures market (FOB), 6) Thailand's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and 7) global CPO production (POC).
          The findings indicate statistically significant relationships between CPO prices and the exchange rate (EX), CPO export quantity (EXQ), export value (EXV), futures market prices (FOB), GDP of Thailand, and global CPO production (POC). However, global crude oil prices (OP) do not exhibit statistically significant influence on Thai CPO prices. These results contribute to understanding the complex dynamics affecting CPO pricing in Thailand, offering insights valuable for stakeholders in the palm oil industry and policymakers.