Factors That Have an Impact on The Number Of COVID-19 Cases in Thailand
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly impacted all sectors of Thailand, particularly during the third wave from April 1, 2021, to December 31, 2021, and the fourth wave from January 1, 2022, to September 30, 2022, which were the periods with the highest infection rates in the country. The objective of this study was to analyze the factors affecting the number of COVID-19 infections during both the third and fourth waves using purposive sampling method. Five independent variables were considered: the number of international air passengers, the number of domestic air passengers, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The statistical analysis was applied by using multiple linear regression. The result identified that the number of air passengers, both international, domestic and relative humidity were the most significant factors influencing the infection forecast for the third wave, with an R-squared value of 79.80% and an RMSE of 2,677.17. For the fourth wave, all factors included in the study significantly affected the forecast, with an R-squared value of 87.25% and an RMSE of 4,314.09.
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