Relationship between Physical Factors and Land Use for the Future Land Use Prediction
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Abstract
Land use is an indicator of human needs and behaviors that relate to physical, social, political, and technological factors. The objectives of this study 1) to study the relationship between physical factors and land use in B.E. 2562 (A.D. 2019) 2) to forecast the land use change in B.E. 2579 (A.D. 2036). According to relationship between physical factors and land use in B.E. 2562 (A.D. 2019), land use are classified into 13 categories which are integrated farm, paddy field, cassava, para rubber, mixed orchard, vegetables, maize, pasture, aquacultural land, forest area, miscellaneous land, building area, and waterbody in addition, 9 driving factors consist of soil drainage, distance from stream, distance from pond, distance from village, slope, distance from road, distance from fault, annual rainfall, and DEM (digital elevation model) by using logistic regression and correlation. In terms of land use prediction, it is addressed by using the Clumondo model, which requires land use data and factors for future forecasting. And scenario simulations of future events from Markov model. The finding show that the factors have significant influence on the all land use types are DEM, distance from village, distance from pond and distance from road. As results of land use assessment between B.H. 2562 (A.D. 2019) to B.H. 2579 (A.D. 2036), paddy field, para rubber, aquacultural land, forest area, building area, and waterbody were increased while integrated farm, cassava, mixed orchard, vegetables, maize, pasture, miscellaneous land, were decreased. In order to use as a database for future land management planning of the Upper Ing River Basin, Phayao Province
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