Geopolitical Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative on the Gulf of Thailand

Abstract

This qualitative research explores geopolitical dynamics associated with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in maritime domains, focusing on the Gulf of Thailand. To propose strategic preparedness measures for Thailand, three key objectives are to analyze: 1) motivations behind expanded Chinese BRI-related influence; 2) the BRI component in China’s geopolitical competitiveness; and 3) geopolitical impacts of BRI operations in the Gulf of Thailand. Data is gathered by in-depth interviews from 20 informants, including academics, government officials, and business sector representatives. Results are that the Maritime Silk Road, an integral BRI component, is influenced by several factors beyond initial geopolitical motivations. The BRI has emerged as a multifaceted strategy enhancing China's geopolitical presence through economic initiatives and extending military and energy-related security power. In the Gulf of Thailand, BRI-associated infrastructure and connectivity projects have elevated regional strategic significance as a logistical and energy corridor for China, while serving as a potential platform for maritime security expansion. This has prompted diverse regional and global actors to adopt responsive strategies to counterbalance Chinese influence; they include the United States of America; India; Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries; and neighboring littoral states. These findings suggest that Thailand should balance its foreign policy by hedging strategies and proactively implementing protective political, economic, and security measures to safeguard national interests amid intensifying geopolitical competition.