Forecasting the demand for whole fresh chickens of entrepreneur in Satun Province

Abstract

        The purpose of this research is to study the creation of an appropriate forecasting model and compare methods for Forecasting the demand for whole fresh chickens of an entrepreneur in Satun Province. The method is two exponential time series techniques as Holt’s linear trend and Damped Trend Models. The data are the sales volume of fresh chicken in January 2018 to December 2022 was used to create a forecasting model, then there are forecasting the sales volume. In January 2023 to December 2023 and compare the accuracy of the forecast model with the actual sales volume by considering the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE).
          As the result, the data used for creating the forecasting model is appropriate for forecasting with the exponential time series technique of Holt’s linear trend and Damped Trend Models. By comparing the forecasting models, it is found that MAPE and RMSE of Damped Trend model is lower than MAPE and RMSE of Holt’s linear trend model; therefore, the method for forecasting the demand for whole fresh chickens is Damped Trend model. And by comparing the forecasting in quantitative, it is found that applying Damped Trend model with production planning will cause reduction in production quantity.