Trends in Tuition Fee Revenue and Budget Management Recommendations for the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences Prince of Songkla University (Fiscal Years 2026–2030)

Abstract

This research consists purposes were 1. to forecast trends in student enrollment and tuition fee revenue at the bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral levels for fiscal years 2026–2030 (B.E. 2569–2573) at the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Prince of Songkla University 2. to analyze the faculty’s revenue structure by level of study and 3. to propose guidelines for allocating the faculty’s revenue budget. A mixed-methods research design integrating quantitative and qualitative approaches was employed. The research instruments comprised data-recording forms, data-analysis tables and Microsoft Excel. Secondary data were collected from internal Faculty sources, including the MAS accounting system, the Registration and Admissions Office and budget-planning documents. The data covered a five-year historical period from 2021 to 2025 (B.E. 2564–2568). The data collected using the research instruments were analyzed using descriptive statistics, including absolute differences and percentage changes. Future trends were forecast using the Average Growth Rate (AGR) method and the forecasting model’s accuracy was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The findings revealed that 1) student enrollment was projected to increase from 710 to 1,039 students, representing an average annual growth rate of 7.91%. Consequently, tuition fee revenue was forecast to rise from THB 53.62 million to THB 80.30 million, equivalent to an average annual growth rate of 8.42%. The forecasting model demonstrated a high level of accuracy (MAPE = 9.87%) 2) the faculty’s revenue structure was highly concentrated at the undergraduate level, which accounted for approximately 98% of its total revenue, whereas revenue from graduate programs represented a relatively small proportion. This concentration indicates a financial risk arising from the faculty’s heavy reliance on revenue generated by undergraduate students and 3) a budget allocation framework based on a ratio of 65:5:30 was proposed, comprising personnel expenditures of no more than 65%, a 5% contingency reserve for risk mitigation and a 30% allocation for strategic initiatives and development. This framework is intended to control recurring costs, enhance financial stability and support the faculty’s long-term development. The findings can serve as an evidence base for effective future budget planning and revenue management within the faculty.