Investigation of System Reserve Margins based on Probabilistic and Deterministic Methods

Abstract

Generation system reliability can be measured through its reserve margin, which is generally defined based on either deterministic or probabilistic method. Thailand’s generation reserve margin has been planned based on deterministic method for several years, i.e. not less than 15% of peak demand. This paper attempts to relate reserve margin used in Thailand’s power development plan to the one based on probabilistic criteria. The developed algorithm has been tested with a modified Thailand’s generation system. Results obtained from both criteria are compared, the proposed algorithm may be used to review and adjust Thailand’s reserve margin criteria in the future.